Decision '08
The Evil Twin of William Jennings Bryan has looked at the numbers and we are able to make a call in the race for the Democratic nomination for President:
I'm not just being a dick about this either. According to the numbers, there is very little chance that Hillary can catch Obama. Here's why: Obama currently leads in the pledged delegate (not superdelegate) count by a little more than 120 or so delegates. Not an insurmountable lead - or is it? This idea makes several assumptions: First, there are certain states (i.e. Wisconsin) that Obama is likely going to win. Second, there are states that Hillary is likely to win (i.e. Texas and Ohio). If we assume that Obama wins by no more than 10% in the states that he is likely to win than it Hillary would need more than 60% of the vote in both Texas and Ohio - a feat that current trends show is not probable. (look about 2/3 of the way down to see the numbers)
OK, granted, I am being a little presumptuous, but things are looking pretty good.
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6 comments:
"Nothing can stand in the way of the power of a million voices calling for change..."
Politics confuses me....What the heck is a superdelegate? What "Super" power does he hold? And how in the hell can a 21yr old be a "Super" anything?
Besides x-ray vision, a superdelegate has the power to vote in the national party convention. They are basically some type of important person in the party. All of the parties elected officials (Congress, governors, etc.) tend to be superdelegates as are higher ups at the state party level. In the case of the 21 year-old, he is probably a part of the state party system and I would guess they made him a superdelegate before they knew it would matter.
In the end, it should not matter. The superdelegate was not created in a lab, but was created to make sure that the regular delegates didn't lose their mind and choose a douchebag candidate. Remember htat these are not "real" elections that are 100% held to Consitutional principles of equal votes - these are party elections to choose a candidate to run.
If you want to get really confused look up your states primary election rules. The Texas primaries are so confusing that even the people in charge are not sure how it works - and that is not a joke.
"The Texas primaries are so confusing that even the people in charge are not sure how it works - and that is not a joke."
Techincally Texas Democrats have a primary and then a caucus (we Republicans just use a primary). And we all have early voting so the polls are open for two weeks. I am tempted to cross party lines and vote Hillary next week because I suspect she would be a slightly less worse president then Obama, but will probably vote McCain again.
I am still hoping that Hillary will try to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates and that there will be a brokered convention. She with Edwards’ delegates and the superdelegates might top Obama's numbers. That would be fun.
How could they possibly seat the Florida and Michigan delagates after telling candidates not to run there? I think it would seriously undermine the legitimacy of the nomination.
You're right - its the Democratic process that is messed up - I didn't say that explicitly, but that's what I meant.
You would vote for her because she would be a "less worse" president? As conservative as you are I would think that you would go more towards Obama since he is more likely to consider the conservative views. In any case, voting for McCain seems like it would be a tough thing for anyone to do since he seems like he is willing to change his mind on any issue just to get approval - same thing Hillary tends to do.
"As conservative as you are I would think that you would go more towards Obama since he is more likely to consider the conservative views."
Obama will consider them and then for the most part dismiss them. He has the most liberal voting record of anyone in the Senate right now and had a very liberal record in the state legislature as well. Bill Clinton (and Hillary after him) made their carreers by coopting (i.e. triangulating) popular conservative ideas. What were Bill Clinton's three biggest accomplishments as president: Welfare reform, balanced budget, and NAFTA. I do not like or trust either Clinton, but because they have so little integrity they will sell out there liberal ideals to get or keep power.
"McCain seems like it would be a tough thing for anyone to do since he seems like he is willing to change his mind on any issue just to get approval" This is the same McCain who was very publically supporting the surge in Iraq when the media, most of congress, most of the public, and the senior leadership of the Pentagon was opposed to it. That was the biggest military decision for our country in the past 5 years and McCain was willing to risk very publically going against the prevailing sentiment to do what he thought was right and to do it right before he planned to run for president. Serioulsly, how many major issues has McCain changed his mind on? He has been consistent on foreign policy, budget issues, and social issues. This is what many conseveratives do not like about him, as he will probably be consistent on issues we disaggree with him on, the two biggest for most being immigration policy and campaign finance law.
What comparatively brave thing has Obama ever done in the face of that much public pressure? I have yet to see him take a couragous stand on anything in public that might hurt his carreer and he uses buzz words like "hope" and "change" instead of offering a concrete vision on anything. A nice enough guy, but there is no substance behind any of it.
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