Why Texas will beat USC...no, really

This year's Rose Bowl is almost a dream match-up for me. Almost. Ideally my team, Michigan, would be playing for the title instead, but this was clearly not our season. So now I get to watch a team that I HATE (USC) against what is probably my second favorite team (Texas). I've seen Texas play live twice and although many of their fans are bizarre, the vast majority are really nice people. Why do I hate USC? I hate them because all of a sudden everyone is a USC fan. If you are a USC alum I have no problem with you. If you are not an alum, but have been a fan forever, even through the crap pre-Carroll years then I have no problem with you. However, if you decided in the last 2 years that you were a USC fanatic, I'm not buying it. I've been a Michigan fan since I was a little kid. My college, UCSD, was Div.III when I was there (we're DII non-scholarship now) and did not have a football team at all so I stuck with the Maize and Blue. But for somebody to jump on board now that they are good and talk shit like you've been a fan forever, that does not work for me. So for that reason I hope they lose. Now back to the game.

First, let's talk about offense. People swear that USC has a great offense, and they do. But guess what, Texas leads the nation in scoring. 50.8 per game versus a flat 50 for USC. Yes, I know that USC averages over 70 more yards per game than Texas, but guess what counts in the end - points. You can gain 150 yards in offense and score 50 points against a team that gains 500 yards, but only gets 20 points and the team with more points wins. And yes, I know that USC has Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart, but I would like to point you back to the whole point thing. Plus, Texas actually averages more rushing yards per game than USC (273.8 vs. 264.3).

Next, let's talk about defense. USC averages a pretty good 21.3 points allowed per game. Texas? 14.6 per game. Have you ever heard the saying "offense wins games and defense wins championships?" Well, folks, the Rose Bowl is a championship. Texas will likely focus on stopping the run, which will be a daunting task. I can hear the USC fans saying "Even if they do stop the run, we have Matt Leinart so there!" USC fans, I would like to introduce you to All-American and Jim Thorpe award-winner Michael Huff. Texas allows a mere 155.9 yards per game passing and keep opposing quarterbacks to a 91.4 efficiency rating (#2 in the country). One example: the top passing team in the country was Texas Tech. In their 52-17 loss to the Longhorns, Texas Tech QB Cody Hodges threw for 369 yards. How does this help my argument? It took him 42 completions to do that. He attempted 64 passes. That's a 5.2 yards-per-completion average. What now?!?!

Finally, let's talk schedule. This is a tough one to tackle since these teams had no common opponents, but I'll give it a shot. USC's toughest game this year? Some people would say Fresno State, who USC beat 50-42. Fresno State played Conference-USA powerhouse Tulsa in the Liberty Bowl, and lost 31-24. Others would argue that Oregon was their toughest opponent since the Ducks finished the regular season ranked #6 and were probably ripped-off by not getting a BCS bowl. Well, the Ducks lost their Holiday Bowl game 17-14 to Oklahoma. Hmmmm...Oklahoma, that sounds familiar. Oh yeah, they're in the Big 12 and lost 45-12 during the season to Texas. I would argue that Notre Dame was their toughest opponent. Notre Dame lost their Fiesta Bowl appearance 34-20 to Ohio State. Texas beat Ohio State 25-22. Finally there are the championship games. There is no PAC-10 title game, but we'll use the UCLA game as the comparison. 66-19 blowout. And it probably wasn't as close as the score showed. The Big 12 has a real title game. Texas beat Colorado 70-3. I can hear the USC fans again: "USC had a tougher schedule overall." OK, USC had a very tough schedule, in fact, the BCS ranks USC's schedule as the second toughest in the country - behind Texas.

Although I am done with my argument, I can still hear the USC fans "USC has more experience." I know that USC has played in a championship game before, but look folks, this is college football. If a player plays all of the years that he is eligible, he plays four years. Most don't do that. All of the pundits talk about experience because that is what they can use to give USC the edge while they ignore stats. Even Reggie bush was not around for the first "title." Yeah, I put it in quotes because, in case you forgot, that was a half-title since they did not play in the BCS title game. However, despite the fact that I think experience is a BS advantage in college, I will give this edge to the Trojans. But let me also say that Texas played in this same sold-out stadium last year against a tough Michigan team, so its not like Texas has NO experience, just not in a national title game. And also let me say that Oklahoma had played in 2 national games (one win) before losing to an inexperienced USC team last year. A USC team that had beaten a tough Michigan team in the Rose Bowl the previous year (how does that sound familiar?)